ZCB presentation - Oxford Human ..
by daniellepaffard, 3 years ago

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  • ‘A project to show the nature of the problem and indicate ways of going forward’
  • Short courses
  • Postgraduate courses
  • Education Programmes
  • Visitor Centre
  • Temperature changes and emissions scenarios
  • www.zerocarbonbritain.org
  • Launched 16th July 2013
  • Where are we at:
  • Where we get to:
  • Power Down
  • Power Up
  • The ZCB Energy Model
  • 10 years of hourly data
  • 87,648 hours!
  • Wind speeds, solar radiation, wave heights, temperatures, electricity demand
  • Real life impact of our scenario
  • -       82% supply exceeds demand
  • -       3% short term storage
  • -       15% Biogas and c.n synthetic gas
  • Carbon-neutral synthetic fuels
  • Land use
  • Emissions and Balancing Land use
  • Dietary change
  • 50% less waste
  • Nitrogen inhibitors
  • -78% emissions
  • Healthy, low-carbon diets
  • ZCB Diet
  • ZCB Diet
  • Eat only what we need
  • 50% less waste
  • Product switch
  • 5-6 portions meat/dairy/eggs.
  • 4 portions pulses/tofu.
  • + Milk for tea/coffee.
  • 83% produce grown at home
  • Use only 33% land
  • Land use
  • Today
  • ZCB
  • Zero Carbon Britain
  • Without relying on future technology
  • Without major impacts on quality of life
  • UK greenhouse gas emissions can be
  • reduced to net zero
  • Benefits beyond carbon
  • 1.5 million jobs
  • Increased resilience
  • Address other environmental indicators
  • Greater wellbeing!
  • www.zerocarbonbritain.org
  • v
  • www.zerocarbonbritain.org | #ZCB
  • Danielle.paffard@cat.org.uk
  • *
  • I’m going to start with CAT
  • Here is an abandoned slate quarry in the mid Wales hills
  • - In 1973, these people showed up
  • Started experimenting with renewable technologies, and demonstrating how they could work to power ourselves
  • At the time, when things were booming, energy use was going to keep growing and growing on booming north sea reserves
  • Voice from the fringes saying hey – what about peak oil? How are we going to deal with that?
  • By 1978 CAT offered the first an ‘alternative energy strategy’ to UK government - challenging the continual growth in energy consumption since ww2
  • And 40 years later, this is CAT today
  • WISE building – truly sustainable building – low impact construction material, tallest rammed earth walls in britain, low energy useage
  • Daily telegraph best building award 2010
  • Having started pioneering work technologies, the important work that CAT does most now, while still developing new things, is imparting that knowledge far and wide and looking at how we scale our activity up to meet challenges of today
  • *
  • *
  • This graph shows that on our current emissions trajectory, we’re looking at considerable global surface temperature rise by the end of the century
  • Crucially, even with current emissions pledges, we are still going to drastically exceed the 2 degrees that global scientific consensus considers ‘safe’ boundary of warming
  • So we need to cut our emissions, and we need to cut them fast
  • This graph shows that on our current emissions trajectory, we’re looking at considerable global surface temperature rise by the end of the century
  • Crucially, even with current emissions pledges, we are still going to drastically exceed the 2 degrees that global scientific consensus considers ‘safe’ boundary of warming
  • So we need to cut our emissions, and we need to cut them fast
  • *
  • And this is ZCB
  • Our net zero scenario is set in 2030
  • *
  • ZCB RtF is the 3rd report from the ZCB project
  • Based at Centre for Alternative Technology
  • This is us launching the report at Parliament in July
  • This report builds on feedback and findings of the first 2 reports, and culmination of knowledge from 40 years of work at CAT
  • *
  • So this is where we’re at currently.
  • As you can see, huge amount of our emissions coming from energy
  • Some emissions from non energy processes – industrial processes, and landuse
  • Land use currently allowing small amount of CO2 absorption
  • *
  • This is where we get to - net zero emissions
  • We’ve made big changes in all sectors, especially energy
  • All with technology available right here right now, and without significant impact on quality of life
  • If this fantasitical to you, I’m going to take you through now how it could be done
  • *
  • Power down is the first part of the ZCB scenario
  • It would be very hard to meet our current energy demands without
  • First step is about significantly reducing our energy demand, and also change our fuel mix, so that we can power ourselves fully with renewables
  • *
  • Looking at a 60% demand reduction in total
  • Notice this isn’t distributed evenly across sectors
  • Industry, energy demand stays roughly the same, though type of fuels used will obviously change
  • Huge reduction in hot water and heating for buildings
  • Biggest opportunities in transport
  • *
  • *
  • Here you can see the drastic reduction in demand
  • And the ‘power up’ with renewables mix
  • Considerable use of Ambient heat – concentrating heat from the air, and electricity
  • *
  • *
  • largest energy saving potential is in the transport sector. That’s often the big elephant in the energy room, 700 TWh per year, a third of our total energy demand today is for transport, almost all of it is oil.
  • Compare to that in our model 150 TWh per year, in electricity, synthetic fuel and a bit of hydrogen.
  • How do we think that’s possible?
  • *
  • *
  • - Today 90% of our energy comes from fossil fuels
  • 82% of emissions come from energy
  • Even though renewables supply such a small amount at the moment, 20% growth in the sector year on year for recent years
  • *
  • What we see here is the energy flow diagram for our scenario.
  • And on the left hand side we see the renewable energy sources that we use.
  • On the right hand side we see all the ways how we use energy – heating, appliances, industry, transport, what we’ve just discussed.
  • We produce enough energy – you might have noticed from previous diagram, at peak times were exporting energy
  • Most energy is produced and delivered as electricity – about 60% as opposed to 20% today
  • Wind power is by far the biggest contributor – offshore wind provides nearly half of total energy in scenario!
  • *
  • *
  • With renewables, sometimes you have surplus, and sometimes shortfall
  • Building more renewables isn’t going to help
  • Having huge baseload producers like nuclear isn’t going to help
  • What we need is flexible back-up, with no related emissions, and here we have some really innovative work
  • *
  • *
  • Start at period with surplus energy
  • *
  • Only decarbonisation scenario that includes a detailed land use model
  • synergy/where everything ties together and look at how systems interrelate
  • Ask some key questions
  • *
  • First we look at emissions – show creating emissions from landuse
  • Emissions from land use are caused by:
  • Also shows that we’re absorbing a small amount. And this is key in our net zero carbon emissions
  • ZCB diet model
  • First time that emissions, land use and nutritional requirements have all been looked at at the same time.
  • 64% of adults overweight/obese (Bates et al, 2011).
  • 71% of deaths in 2010 from diet- related disease (WHO, 2013).
  • Too much food.
  • An unhealthy balance.
  • Too much HFSS and high protein foods.
  • Too little fruit, vegetables and cereals.
  • Waste (30% in Europe (FAO, 2011)).
  • Just foods (not drinks, aside from milk).
  • Reducing the amount of beef and lamb products in our diet by 92%.
  • • Pig and chicken products (including eggs) are reduced by 58%.
  • • Dairy consumption is also reduced; products such as milk, cheese and yoghurt are reduced by 59%.
  • Average diet – not everyone (i.e. still some choice aspect, but on average we would eat this as a population).
  • Best way to eliminate GHGs from the diet is to eat no red meat and no dairy products (but currently only 2% of the UK population is vegetarian or vegan) BUT THIS IS DIFFERENT TO BEING VEGETARIAN OR VEGAN.
  • NIs – 38% reduction in N2O emissions (lower estimate from literature). CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE.
  • Important to note that reduction in most HFSS foods (sugars) is NOT FOR GHG BENEFITS – sugar one of the lowest GHG emissions foods.
  • *
  • It’s about speed and ambition – in this respect it is pioneering – far more progressive that what anybody else is doing
  • Holistic approach, particularly looking at land use
  • Starts from the position of physical reality – if we can see the climate science, and this is what it says we need to do, lets start from there. Paint a picture that could be
  • Assumptions
  • Current tech
  • No nuclear
  • No geoengineering
  • Don’t import energy
  • Don’t import livestock or livestock feed
  • Choose solutions that help adapt to climate change
  • Current UK greenhouse gas emissions targets, though ambitious in comparison to our international contemporaries, do not offer substantial enough reductions to provide a good chance of avoiding what is now considered extremely dangerous climate change. Neither do they adhere to what might be termed the UK’s ‘fair share’ of the global carbon budget. The most recent climate science now demands a much greater sense of urgency than the current mainstream view.
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